Assessment of the exposure level to saltwater intrusion in the context of climate change at Dong Nai province to 2030

Abstract

The study aimed to assess the exposure level (E) to saltwater intrusion (SI) in the context of climate change (CC) at Dong Nai province to 2030. The results serve to assess vulnerability due to this phenomenon. The research scope included 57 wards in Bien Hoa city, Long Thanh, and Nhon Trach districts where have been facing to SI. Results showed that: (i) The high exposure area (E ≥ 75): near Long Tau, Dong Tranh, Go Gia rivers and Thi Vai river downstream; (ii) The medium – high exposure area (50 ≤ E < 75): Thi Vai river upstream, Nha Be, and Long Tau rivers; (iii) The medium – low exposure area (25 < E < 50): Dong Nai river above the confluence with Saigon river about 10 km and the area between Dong Mon and Thi Vai rivers; (iv) The low exposure area (E ≤ 25): the entire of Bien Hoa city, a part of Long Thanh district located near Buong river, part 4 of Dong Nai river, and Thi Vai river upstream.The exposure level tends to increase over time (2020, 2030) and under CC scenarios. The differences between the current E and that in 2030 are relatively small: 8.6, 1.96, and 2.71 in Bien Hoa, Long Thanh, and Nhon Trach, respectively. Thus, effects of climate change and sea level rise to the exposure level to SI are not really clear in the period 2014–2030. However, the increase in exposure index partly reflects the challenges for local governments and communities in response to SI and CC.